From Tax Gap Measurement to Targeted Compliance: Behavioural and Administrative Evidence for Fair Enforcement

The measurement of the tax-gap has gradually turned into a strategic tool for enhancing the administration of tax revenues; however, its usefulness lies in the extent to which estimated tax compliance losses can be transformed into targeted and proportionate enforcement efforts and be directed at particular behaviours. The present study aims to explore the possibilities of enhancing compliance management practices in the context of compliance challenges in the National Board of Revenue of Bangladesh by combining tax-gap analysis, behavioural evidence and administrative risk assessment. Using revenue statistics, NBR's institutional transformation between 2022 and July 2026 is analysed, along with developments in digital tax administration, automated audit initiatives and evidence from international benchmarks, including OECD, IMF, IRS, HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC). The results show that NBR has shifted from the traditional paper-based collection administration to digital and risk-based compliance management, which are enabled by expanding e-return, automating VAT audit selection, income tax risk assessment, and enhancing information integration. Yet, there are limitations in measuring tax gaps comprehensively, in managing compliance risk, in audit effectiveness and trust of taxpayers. International experience shows that tax gaps are not a result of intentional cheating but also due to mistakes, lack of information, administrative complexity and behavioural factors. The study suggests an NBR-centric Measure–Segment–Match–Safeguard–Evaluate–Re-estimate approach to build fair and efficient compliance management. The results indicate a need to go beyond revenue recovery to intelligence-based administration that fosters voluntary compliance and sustainable revenue mobilization for strengthening NBR.